MACRO-FINANCIAL PLANNING AND MACRO-FINANCIAL STABILIZATION: THEORY AND RISKS IN UKRAINE
The paper found that the Ukrainian financial practice is still going through the process of reforming public finance management and in connection with the growing dynamism of economic and social processes taking place in society, rapid fluctuations in domestic and foreign markets, the need for stabilizing social development at the macro and micro financial system is growing role of macro-financial planning. Since it is one of the most important and complex functions of financial management, it must continuously improve and rethink.
Studied the original basis macro-financial planning is proposed to define it as a special sphere of financial activity of the state, which is associated with some justification - making, the basic per- task is to identify possible imbalances in society and through the financial mechanism of their elimination. Based on the analysis of national practice forecasting macroeconomic indicators found not realistic and the presence of significant defects, including lack formalization macroeconomic planning process, lack of transparency of methods of forecasting and planning of financial resources of the state for public discussion.
Studied western practice planning financial resources and the proposed introduction Ukraine macro-financial planning based on independent macroeconomic forecasting and estimating tax revenues based on the positive experience of developed countries that appear on realistic expectations and indicators will take informed political steps to stabilize public finances.
Revealed that hinder stabilization processes in Ukraine is a threat of internal and external origin, should be taken into account in determining the financial capacity of the state . Studies show that the main macro-financial risks are among the states of external factors: lack of external financing and restriction of access to international capital markets, reducing international investment activity, massive capital flight, lower prices on world energy markets, increase the cost of foreign borrowing for Ukrainian corporations and others. Among internal risk factors unbalance the financial system of Ukraine most significant importance: devaluation, low credit capacity of the banking system, the spread of the insolvency of the real economy, a significant increase in government deficits and more. These risks are the result of the current macroeconomic and political destabilization and have a direct impact on the solvency of the government performance and level of financial security.
On the basis of scientific and pragmatic potential and positive experiences of developed countries proposed for implementing countercyclical stabilization of financial policy in Ukraine to develop clear not too hard to provide the necessary flexibility, permanent and transparent fiscal rules under the World Heritage.
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Keywords: financial planning, macro-financial planning, macro-financial stabilization, fiscal rules, expert advice, risks, macroeconomic forecasting. |
MACROECONOMICS
Kotina Ganna
PhD, Associate Professor
Stepura Maryna
PhD, Associate Professor, Department of finance SHEI «Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman»
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